Fans on TOP FAN VOTE pick a winner (or draw) before each group game. Once the score is in, we count how many votes matched the actual result. This is live data from our poll — not betting advice, not a bookmaker line.
The numbers
48.6% of votes called the right outcome
- 593 votes across 31 finished group-stage matches (31 with at least one vote).
- 288 correct predictions — about 48.6% overall accuracy.
- Crowd majority (the option with the highest share) matched the result on 19 of 31 matches (61.3%).
In plain language: the “wisdom of the crowd” is decent on obvious home wins, but upsets and tight draws still burn a lot of picks.
Where the crowd whiffed
Biggest misses so far
- ESP vs CPV (0–0) — 93.3% picked Spain; actual: Draw.
- QAT vs SUI (1–1) — 90.5% picked Switzerland; actual: Draw.
- POR vs COD (1–1) — 88.9% picked Portugal; actual: Draw.
These are the games where the plurality of fans backed the wrong side — often because a favourite looked safe on paper.
By group
Accuracy by group
| Group | Matches | Votes | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group A | 4 | 86 | 46.5% |
| Group B | 3 | 59 | 44.1% |
| Group C | 4 | 99 | 63.6% |
| Group D | 4 | 60 | 46.7% |
| Group E | 2 | 25 | 56.0% |
| Group F | 2 | 31 | 29.0% |
| Group G | 2 | 37 | 21.6% |
| Group H | 2 | 32 | 0.0% |
| Group I | 2 | 41 | 78.0% |
| Group J | 2 | 53 | 58.5% |
| Group K | 2 | 35 | 40.0% |
| Group L | 2 | 35 | 65.7% |
Every finished game
Match-by-match breakdown
| Fixture | Score | Result | Votes | Correct % | Crowd lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEX vs RSA | 2–0 | Mexico | 14 | 78.6% | Crowd lean Mexico (78.6%) |
| KOR vs CZE | 2–1 | South Korea | 16 | 62.5% | Crowd lean South Korea (62.5%) |
| CAN vs BIH | 1–1 | Draw | 14 | 28.6% | Fans backed Canada (64.3%) — result Draw |
| USA vs PAR | 4–1 | United States | 11 | 72.7% | Crowd lean United States (72.7%) |
| AUS vs TUR | 2–0 | Australia | 12 | 33.3% | Fans backed Türkiye (66.7%) — result Australia |
| QAT vs SUI | 1–1 | Draw | 21 | 0.0% | Fans backed Switzerland (90.5%) — result Draw |
| BRA vs MAR | 1–1 | Draw | 26 | 15.4% | Fans backed Brazil (57.7%) — result Draw |
| HTI vs SCO | 0–1 | Scotland | 23 | 73.9% | Crowd lean Scotland (73.9%) |
| GER vs CUW | 7–1 | Germany | 13 | 84.6% | Crowd lean Germany (84.6%) |
| NED vs JPN | 2–2 | Draw | 14 | 7.1% | Fans backed Netherlands (64.3%) — result Draw |
| CIV vs ECU | 1–0 | Ivory Coast | 12 | 25.0% | Fans backed Ecuador (50.0%) — result Ivory Coast |
| SWE vs TUN | 5–1 | Sweden | 17 | 47.1% | Crowd lean Sweden (47.1%) |
| ESP vs CPV | 0–0 | Draw | 15 | 0.0% | Fans backed Spain (93.3%) — result Draw |
| BEL vs EGY | 1–1 | Draw | 18 | 5.6% | Fans backed Belgium (66.7%) — result Draw |
| KSA vs URU | 1–1 | Draw | 17 | 0.0% | Fans backed Uruguay (88.2%) — result Draw |
| IRN vs NZL | 2–2 | Draw | 19 | 36.8% | Crowd lean Draw (36.8%) |
| FRA vs SEN | 3–1 | France | 21 | 76.2% | Crowd lean France (76.2%) |
| IRQ vs NOR | 1–4 | Norway | 20 | 80.0% | Crowd lean Norway (80.0%) |
| ARG vs ALG | 3–0 | Argentina | 31 | 58.1% | Crowd lean Argentina (58.1%) |
| AUT vs JOR | 3–1 | Austria | 22 | 59.1% | Crowd lean Austria (59.1%) |
| POR vs COD | 1–1 | Draw | 18 | 0.0% | Fans backed Portugal (88.9%) — result Draw |
| ENG vs CRO | 4–2 | England | 18 | 77.8% | Crowd lean England (77.8%) |
| GHA vs PAN | 1–0 | Ghana | 17 | 52.9% | Crowd lean Ghana (52.9%) |
| UZB vs COL | 1–3 | Colombia | 17 | 82.4% | Crowd lean Colombia (82.4%) |
| CZE vs RSA | 1–1 | Draw | 29 | 20.7% | Fans backed Czechia (48.3%) — result Draw |
| CAN vs QAT | 6–0 | Canada | 24 | 91.7% | Crowd lean Canada (91.7%) |
| MEX vs KOR | 1–0 | Mexico | 27 | 48.1% | Crowd lean Mexico (48.1%) |
| USA vs AUS | 2–0 | United States | 19 | 63.2% | Crowd lean United States (63.2%) |
| SCO vs MAR | 0–1 | Morocco | 26 | 76.9% | Crowd lean Morocco (76.9%) |
| BRA vs HTI | 3–0 | Brazil | 24 | 91.7% | Crowd lean Brazil (91.7%) |
| TUR vs PAR | 0–1 | Paraguay | 18 | 22.2% | Fans backed Türkiye (55.6%) — result Paraguay |
Betting context
Fan picks vs bookmaker odds — same traps?
Search traffic around the World Cup is not only vote and poll — it is World Cup 2026 odds, betting tips, match predictions, and who will win futures. Our own Google data still shows almost all clicks on poll-intent queries; betting phrases have not landed on topfan.vote yet. This section is for fans comparing free picks to what bookmakers price — not a tip sheet.
Bookmakers blend models with public money: heavy volume on favourites (England, Brazil, hosts) can shorten odds beyond “true” probability. Sound familiar? Our crowd did the same — piling onto Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Uruguay — and still whiffed when the result was a draw.
| Fixture | Score | Fan lean | What markets signalled |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESP vs CPV | 0–0 Draw | 93% Spain | Spain opened as a massive favourite (widely quoted around −1200 pre-match). Almost nobody — fans or casual bettors — was pricing a Cape Verde shutout. |
| QAT vs SUI | 1–1 Draw | 91% Switzerland | Switzerland were clear favourites in match markets; draw was the third leg most tickets ignored. |
| POR vs COD | 1–1 Draw | 89% Portugal | Portugal carried short win odds; our voters mirrored that — 0% correct on the draw. |
Implied probability from odds is not the same as our vote share — bookies build in margin, and we count one fan one pick. But the pattern matches: favourites feel safe, draws punish both crowds and liability-heavy markets. On three-way football, even sharp books rarely “beat” random guessers every week; they manage margin and volume.
SEO note for us: queries like world cup 2026 betting odds, world cup predictions vs odds, and fan poll accuracy sit next to poll traffic in Google — high volume globally, especially US/UK during the tournament. We can rank on accuracy + comparison stories without offering bets; this page is that experiment.
Nation rankings
Top 10 nations fans could trust — and 10 that burned win picks
For betting talk, we split nations by what happened when fans picked them to win (not draw). Minimum 5 votes backing that nation as winner across finished group games so far. “Stable” = every one of those win-votes was right (they won that fixture). “Unstable” = every win-vote was wrong (draw or defeat).
Most stable — backing them to win paid off for voters
- Mexico — 24 win-votes, 100% correct (won when fans backed them)
- United States — 20 win-votes, 100%
- Germany — 11 win-votes, 100%
- Sweden — 8 win-votes, 100%
- France — 16 win-votes, 100%
- Norway — 16 win-votes, 100%
- Argentina — 18 win-votes, 100%
- Austria — 13 win-votes, 100%
- England — 14 win-votes, 100%
- Ghana — 9 win-votes, 100%
Co-hosts USA and Mexico head the list — when our crowd backed them to win, they delivered. That mirrors short-priced pre-match markets on both openers. Small sample: most teams have only one or two group games in this snapshot.
Most unstable — every fan win-pick was wrong
- South Africa — 11 win-votes, 0% (did not win when backed)
- Czechia — 18 win-votes, 0%
- Türkiye — 18 win-votes, 0%
- Switzerland — 19 win-votes, 0% (drew vs Qatar)
- Netherlands — 9 win-votes, 0%
- Ecuador — 6 win-votes, 0%
- Tunisia — 5 win-votes, 0%
- Spain — 14 win-votes, 0% (0–0 vs Cape Verde)
- Belgium — 12 win-votes, 0%
- Egypt — 5 win-votes, 0%
Same names bookmakers loved as chalk: Spain, Switzerland, Belgium. Portugal (16 win-votes, 0%) and Uruguay (15 win-votes, 0%) burned picks too — just outside this top-10 by vote count. Brazil and Canada split results when the crowd made them favourites (50% crowd-favourite hit rate across two games each).
Not a tip list. Past group games do not predict the next kick-off. Use this as a mood check before you mirror market favourites with real money.
Bottom line
Ready to put real money with bookmakers?
Our fans — voting for free, with nothing at stake except pride — still got only 48.6% of outcomes right. The majority pick was wrong on 12 of 31 finished games. The painful misses were not wild long shots; they were “obvious” favourites and ignored draws.
If the crowd cannot call Spain at 93% or Switzerland at 91% — are you sure you want to stake cash on the same story the market is already selling?
A free fan poll costs nothing when you are wrong. A losing bet does not. If this scorecard reads uncomfortably — good. Use it to sanity-check hype, then vote for fun on upcoming matches without touching a wallet.
Not betting advice. Odds vary by country, operator, and time. Many jurisdictions restrict or ban online gambling; check local law. TOP FAN VOTE is not affiliated with bookmakers or FIFA.
Method
How we count
One vote per match per browser. “Correct” means your pick equals the match outcome (home win, draw, or away win) after the game is marked finished in our database. Percentages are vote-weighted, not per-user averages.
Bookmaker lines in the table above are described from widely reported pre-match markets, not live feeds from a single operator. A future update may add closing implied probability per match from public odds archives.
TOP FAN VOTE is an unofficial fan poll. Not affiliated with FIFA. Not betting advice. Data snapshot generated 2026-06-20T16:06:24+00:00.